What are the odds of a runner on second scoring with no outs in the ninth?

I have seen answers that range from 75% to 85%, but you can't go by those kinds of odds. Odds in Baseball are completely different than, say, Poker or craps. With poker, you always have 52 cards in a deck and the number never changes. With craps, the dice faces never change.

In baseball, your odds are determined by the abilities of at least six (Pitcher, Catcher, Batter 1, Batter 2, Batter 3, Base Runner on second) and up to thirteen (the remaining fielders) or more (Batter 4 if one of the other batters is walked) players.

Just some factors:

Is the pitcher on his "A" game? And even if so, is he an ace or mediocre?

The batting averages of the upcoming batters.

Are any of those batters hot or cold?

If NL, Will the pitcher be batting?

What are the fielding percentages of the players behind the pitcher?

Will the pitcher intentionally walk the next batter to try and create a force-out situation?