It depends on how much beer those 200 people are willing to drink. But my guess is 40.
It's probably too late for you now, but 40 kegs would probably serve a small town. 1 keg contains ~15.5 gallons of beer. That's about 165 12oz cans of beer. Take a look at your guy to girl ratio. Guys will drink more than girls and you can maybe assume 1-2 beers per guy and 0-1 per girl each hour. This is also assuming your friends are all alcoholics...
Let's just assume an even split of 100 guys and 100 girls at a 4 hour party. Worst case scenario is you go through about 300 beers/hour for 4 hours. That's 1200 beers for this wicked awesome party. 1200/165 = 7 kegs. I have never in my life seen a party go through that many kegs.
That's an awful lot of beer that will cost a small fortune. I personally would not buy any more than 4-5 kegs. There are a lot of things you can't account for such as pre-gamers, beer haters, waiting lines and people that need to drive.
2 maybe 3 if this is a wedding reception think about the grooms buddies, are they a bunch of animals and still single, or are they a bunch of pompous a**holes that talk a big game but in actuality if their gf or wife sees the pink isod wearing douche bag anywhere near the keg she'll kick his a**.
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