Is the key ingredient in a firms financial planning the sales forecast?

yes

Development of the key drivers that affect all other assumptions used in the forecast starts with an evaluation of the growth prospects based upon, among other things:

1. The addressable market size and competitive positioning of the business (that may influence expected market share). This is what drives volume sales estimates and therefore the manufacturing capacity needed for production. These assumptions will drive capital investment requirements.

2. Consumer preferences and distribution trends that effect the relative size of each segment (eg the beer industry segments - packaged versus on-premise, value priced versus premium brands, and beer styles / packaging formats) will influence product strategy decisions that determine appropriate assumptions used to estimate product pricing and manufacturing costs.

These fundamental market assumptions will therefore affect the Company's strategic plans and decisions which will define virtually all assumptions concerning revenue growth, profitability, equipment costs, capital needs, return on investment, and valuation. Therefore, market evaluation must be the starting point and deserves a level of effort commensurate with its impact. Industry Consultants can provide advice and support in gathering data to enable the Company to make strategic decisions and plans and help you document the rationale for the business case assumptions.